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2016/08/11

[轉載] 決戰白宮 希拉蕊有自己的「勝利地圖」


http://a.udn.com/focus/2016/08/10/23783/index.html

(美聯社)在一州接一州尋求支持成為總統時,希拉蕊.柯林頓對於在景點停留並不那麼感興趣。相反地,這位民主黨總統提名人已設定好她的全球定位系統,帶領她從最快的道路,取得攻取白宮所需的270張選舉人團票。

 

(AP) Hillary Clinton doesn't appear all that interested in making scenic stops on her state-to-state quest to become president. The Democratic nominee is instead programming her GPS to take her on the quickest route to collect the 270 Electoral College votes she needs to win the White House.

在賓州費城的天普大學,民主黨候選人希拉蕊.柯林頓與副總統搭檔凱恩同台造勢。美聯社

距離選舉3個月,希拉蕊的選戰聚焦於擄獲兵家必爭的數州,且無意擴大地圖。這幾州是最近幾次總統大選攸關勝負的關鍵州。

 

With three months until Election Day, Clinton's campaign is focused on capturing the battleground states that have decided the most recent presidential elections, not so much on expanding the map.

 

希拉蕊團隊不排除在亞歷桑納州也付出努力,該州是拉美裔選民人口激增的一州,民調顯示,他們不樂於支持川普。喬治亞州是美國「深南部」地區的堡壘,該州也呼應了東南部其他州最近的族群趨勢,而希拉蕊正在東南部州卯足全力競選。

 

Clinton's team doesn't rule out an effort at Arizona, a state with a booming population of Latino voters that polls find are loath to support Trump. And Georgia, a bastion of the Deep South, echoes recent population trends in other Southeastern states where Clinton is competing aggressively.

共和黨總統候選人川普不太受到拉美裔選民歡迎。美聯社

但這兩州不在11個戰場州內,希拉蕊的電視廣告計畫和她的行程指出這11州是她的作戰焦點。這些州包括長期以來的第一目標佛羅里達州和俄亥俄州,另加科羅拉多、愛荷華、密西根、內華達、新罕布夏、北卡羅來納、賓州、維吉尼亞和威斯康辛州。總統歐巴馬2008年囊括了這些州,2012年競選連任,只丟掉北卡羅來納州。

 

But neither is among the 11 battleground states that Clinton's television advertising plans and her travel schedule point to as her focus. Those states are the perennial top-tier targets Florida and Ohio, plus Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. President Barack Obama carried them all in 2008, and missed out on only North Carolina during his 2012 re-election campaign.

 

希拉蕊的選戰顧問安札隆恩說:「過去兩次選舉提供了民主黨一條通往勝利的選舉道路。我們的戰略是有效運用資源,鎖定我們需要的支持,以取得過半的270張選舉人票。」

 

"The last two elections have given Democrats an electoral path for victory," said Clinton campaign adviser John Anzalone. "And our strategy is to efficiently use our resources to lock down the support we need to reach 270 electoral votes."

說文解字看新聞

electoral college為「選舉人團」或「選舉團」,是美國特有的總統選舉方式。美國總統不是由選民直接投票(popular vote)產生,而是由各州議會選出的選舉人投票(electoral vote)誕生,各州選舉人團的投票意向是根據各州選民直接投票的結果而來。各州有多少選舉人票取決於各州的人口,如喬治亞州的選舉人團是16票,若普選結果顯示希拉蕊.柯林頓為該州的勝利者,因選舉人團票多採「贏家全拿制」(winner-take-all system),希拉蕊即可抱走該州全部的16票。美國全國共538張選舉人票,贏得過半,亦即270張選舉人票的候選人才能當選總統,本文指出希拉蕊想以最快的方式,取得這270張選舉人票。

聯合報/王麗娟 報導
聯合報/王麗娟、羅曉荷、毛鼎言、陸佩鳳 製作
主圖/美聯社



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